www.droblo.com: diciembre 2012

lunes, 31 de diciembre de 2012

según CMA. Curioso el puesto ocupado por uno de los estados de los EUA...

Highest Default Probabilities
Entity Name		%
Greece		96.32
Argentina		62.17
Cyprus		60.46
Pakistan		42.61
Venezuela		38.03
Ukraine		36.50
Portugal		32.79
Illinois/State of		32.08
Egypt		30.12
Iraq		28.36

The S&P 500 sube 12.40% en el año pero cotiza un 3.56% por debajo del máximo de cierre anual marcado el 14 de septiembre

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Change in Real GDP¹	2012	2013	2014	2015
Dec 2012 Projections	1.7 to 1.8	2.3 to 3.0	3.0 to 3.5	3.0 to 3.7
Sept 2012 Projections	1.7 to 2.0	2.5 to 3.0	3.0 to 3.8	3.0 to 3.8

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Unemployment Rate²	2012	2013	2014	2015
Dec 2012 Projections	7.8 to 7.9	7.4 to 7.7	6.8 to 7.3	6.0 to 6.6
Sept 2012 Projections	8.0 to 8.2	7.6 to 7.9	6.7 to 7.3	6.0 to 6.6

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
PCE Inflation¹	2012	2013	2014	2015
Dec 2012 Projections	1.6 to 1.7	1.3 to 2.0	1.5 to 2.0	1.7 to 2.0
Sept 2012 Projections	1.7 to 1.8	1.6 to 2.0	1.6 to 2.0	1.8 to 2.0

(CPD es la posibilidad de impago de la deuda que calcula CMA)

Sovereign Wideners
Entity Name	CDS	Change (%)	Change (bps)	CPD (%)
Italy	300.47	+17.35	+44.41	22.74
Egypt	475.00	+6.94	+30.81	27.83
Spain	321.68	+6.69	+20.18	24.13
Ireland	220.70	+6.35	+13.19	17.34
United States of America	39.68	+5.80	+2.18	3.34
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland	34.96	+5.55	+1.84	2.99
Austria	43.21	+4.88	+2.01	3.68
France	87.16	+4.08	+3.41	7.22

(CPD es la posibilidad de quiebra que calcula CMA)

Sovereign Wideners
Entity Name	CDS	Change (%)	Change (bps)	CPD (%)
Italy	282.30	+10.25	+26.25	21.54
Spain	315.42	+4.61	+13.91	23.72
Ireland	216.67	+4.41	+9.16	17.06
Germany	34.12	+3.88	+1.28	2.89
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland	34.25	+3.41	+1.13	2.93
France	86.59	+3.39	+2.84	7.17
Denmark	31.75	+2.43	+0.75	2.70
Belgium	77.83	+2.14	+1.63	6.56