miércoles, 19 de junio de 2013

Ante de la reunión del FOMC, repasemos las previsiones de la FED

The central range for 2012 GDP will probably be closer to the lower end of the March projections.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Change in Real GDP1201320142015
June 2013 Meeting Projections¿?¿?¿?
Mar 2013 Meeting Projections2.3 to 2.82.9 to 3.42.9 to 3.7
Dec 2012 Meeting Projections2.3 to 3.03.0 to 3.53.0 to 3.7
1 Projections of change in real GDP and in inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. 

The unemployment rate was at 7.6% in May and the June projections will probably be unchanged.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Unemployment Rate2201320142015
June 2013 Meeting Projections¿?¿?¿?
Mar 2013 Meeting Projections7.3 to 7.56.7 to 7.06.0 to 6.5
Dec 2012 Meeting Projections7.4 to 7.76.8 to 7.36.0 to 6.6
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. 

Projections for inflation will probably be reduced.  Goldman Sachs believes the FOMC will lower the central projection for PCE inflation to 1.25% in 2013, and core PCE to 1.3%.  The current concern is that inflation is below the Fed's target.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
PCE Inflation1201320142015
June 2013 Meeting Projections¿?¿?¿?
Mar 2013 Meeting Projections1.3 to 1.71.5 to 2.01.7 to 2.0
Dec 2012 Meeting Projections1.3 to 2.01.5 to 2.01.7 to 2.0

No hay comentarios:

Publicar un comentario