jueves, 20 de marzo de 2014

Las previsiones de la FED tras el primer FOMC presidido por Yellen

GDP was revised down slightly, the unemployment rate was revised down again, and inflation projections were mostly unchanged. 
GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Change in Real GDP1201420152016
Mar 2014 Meeting Projections2.8 to 3.03.0 to 3.22.5 to 3.0
Dec 2013 Meeting Projections2.8 to 3.23.0 to 3.42.5 to 3.2
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. 

The unemployment rate was at 6.7% in February.  

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Unemployment Rate2201420152016
Mar 2014 Meeting Projections6.1 to 6.35.6 to 5.95.2 to 5.6
Dec 2013 Meeting Projections6.3 to 6.65.8 to 6.15.3 to 5.8
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. 

As of January, PCE inflation was up 1.2% from January 2012. The FOMC expects inflation to increase in 2014, but remain below their 2% target (Note: the FOMC target is symmetrical around 2%, so this is about the same miss as 2.9% inflation).  

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
PCE Inflation1201420152016
Mar 2014 Meeting Projections1.5 to 1.61.5 to 2.01.7 to 2.0
Dec 2013 Meeting Projections1.4 to 1.61.5 to 2.01.7 to 2.0

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#Hmx6HSpObPSJX7u0.99

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