Mientras, el BOJ, primero en iniciar esta tendencia, está lejos de su máximos
viernes 27 de enero de 2012
Los balances de la FED y el BCE siguen rompiendo récords
Mientras, el BOJ, primero en iniciar esta tendencia, está lejos de su máximos
Actualización de la lista CMA con los 10 países con más riesgo de impago
Datos de las 13.30 - Nuevos máximos de Portugal. Por contra, Italia está cerca de salirse del "top ten"
| Entity Name | CDS | % |
|---|---|---|
Greece | 5300.39 | 82.83 |
Portugal | 1436.17 | 70.47 |
Venezuela | 857.96 | 45.75 |
Pakistan | 852.23 | 45.30 |
Ukraine | 830.00 | 43.84 |
Argentina | 765.00 | 42.22 |
Ireland | 615.00 | 41.24 |
Hungary | 579.19 | 33.19 |
Egypt | 561.50 | 32.47 |
Italy | 408.75 | 29.88 |
jueves 26 de enero de 2012
Actualización de la lista CMA con los 10 países con más riesgo de impago
Datos de las 13.30 - Todos en Europa mejoran excepto Portugal que está en máximos
| Entity Name | CDS | % |
|---|---|---|
Greece | 5255.18 | 82.58 |
Portugal | 1327.10 | 67.69 |
Venezuela | 872.55 | 46.35 |
Pakistan | 845.72 | 45.03 |
Ukraine | 823.11 | 43.59 |
Argentina | 753.33 | 41.75 |
Ireland | 617.86 | 41.40 |
Hungary | 574.44 | 32.98 |
Egypt | 557.74 | 32.31 |
Italy | 411.38 | 30.05 |
Estadística curiosa: relación entre el año chino y el comportamiento del Dow Jones
Dado que acaba de empezar el año del dragón y es el segundo mejor de la serie estadística tras el del conejo, esto invita a continuar la tendencia alcista del Dow Jones
miércoles 25 de enero de 2012
Las nuevas previsiones de la FED
| GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Change in Real GDP1 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| January 2012 Projections | 2.2 to 2.7 | 2.8 to 3.2 | 3.3 to 4.0 |
| November 2011 Projections | 2.5 to 2.9 | 3.0 to 3.5 | 3.0 to 3.9 |
| Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate2 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| January 2012 Projections | 8.2 to 8.5 | 7.4 to 8.1 | 6.7 to 7.6 |
| November 2011 Projections | 8.5 to 8.7 | 7.8 to 8.2 | 6.8 to 7.7 |
| Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| PCE Inflation1 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| January 2012 Projections | 1.4 to 1.8 | 1.4 to 2.0 | 1.6 to 2.0 |
| November 2011 Projections | 1.4 to 2.0 | 1.5 to 2.0 | 1.5 to 2.0 |
| Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Core Inflation1 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| January 2012 Projections | 1.5 to 1.8 | 1.5 to 2.0 | 1.6 to 2.0 |
| November 2011 Projections | 1.5 to 2.0 | 1.4 to 1.9 | 1.5 to 2.0 |
Las anteriores: http://droblopuntocom.blogspot.com/2012/01/antes-del-fomc-repasemos-las-actuales.html
Actualización de la lista CMA con los 10 países con más riesgo de impago
Datos de las 13.30 - España 27.88% (empeora y casi alcanza a Líbano, 28.36%)
| Entity Name | CDS | % |
|---|---|---|
Greece | 5215.21 | 83.48 |
Portugal | 1312.24 | 67.48 |
Venezuela | 890.34 | 47.05 |
Pakistan | 870.16 | 46.00 |
Ukraine | 843.80 | 44.41 |
Argentina | 785.00 | 43.10 |
Ireland | 631.51 | 41.90 |
Hungary | 589.67 | 33.70 |
Egypt | 571.28 | 32.96 |
Italy | 448.50 | 32.28 |
martes 24 de enero de 2012
Actualización de la lista CMA con los 10 países con más riesgo de impago
Datos de las 13.30 - Hoy ha empeorado algo España (27.74%) tras tocar mínimos de muchos meses y además está reduciendo su diferencia respecto a Italia que llegó a ser de más de 6 puntos porcentuales. En cualquier caso, países como Croacia o Líbano nos alejan del "top ten" en el que durante tanto tiempo estuvimos en 2011
| Entity Name | CDS | % |
|---|---|---|
Greece | 5128.77 | 83.39 |
Portugal | 1273.75 | 66.42 |
Venezuela | 899.03 | 47.41 |
Pakistan | 867.29 | 45.89 |
Ukraine | 843.33 | 44.41 |
Ireland | 658.76 | 43.19 |
Argentina | 775.54 | 42.73 |
Hungary | 595.00 | 33.96 |
Egypt | 580.00 | 33.38 |
Italy | 439.89 | 31.78 |
Amortizaciones del Tesoro Público 2011
| Mes | Letras | Bonos | Obligaciones | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Enero | 8.611,1 | - | - | 8.611,1 |
Febrero | 13.036,3 | - | 1.337,8 | 14.374,1 |
Marzo | 9.814,8 | - | - | 9.814,8 |
Abril | 9.558,6 | 11.939,1 | - | 21.497,7 |
Mayo | 5.717,5 | - | - | 5.717,5 |
Junio | 7.776,6 | - | - | 7.776,6 |
Julio | 4.118,0 | - | 12.873,2 | 16.991,2 |
Agosto | 7.403,2 | - | - | 7.403,2 |
Septiembre | 3.903,8 | - | - | 3.903,8 |
Octubre | 6.085,1 | 5.291,0 | 14.967,1 | 26.343,2 |
Noviembre | 2.634,7 | - | - | 2.634,7 |
Diciembre | 6.051,1 | - | - | 6.051,1 |
TOTAL | 84.710,8 | 17.230,1 | 29.178,1 | 131.119 |
Fuente: Invertia
Antes del FOMC, repasemos las actuales previsiones de la FED sobre la economía USA
| GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change in Real GDP1 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| November 2011 Projections | 1.6 to 1.7 | 2.5 to 2.9 | 3.0 to 3.5 | 3.0 to 3.9 |
| Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate2 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| November 2011 Projections | 9.0 to 9.1 | 8.5 to 8.7 | 7.8 to 8.2 | 6.8 to 7.7 |
| Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCE Inflation1 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| November 2011 Projections | 2.7 to 2.9 | 1.4 to 2.0 | 1.5 to 2.0 | 1.5 to 2.0 |
| Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Inflation1 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| November 2011 Projections | 1.8 to 1.9 | 1.5 to 2.0 | 1.4 to 1.9 | 1.5 to 2.0 |
lunes 23 de enero de 2012
Actualización de la lista CMA con los 10 países con más riesgo de impago
Datos de las 13.30 - España está en 27.08%, mínimos del 2012
| Entity Name | CDS | % |
|---|---|---|
Greece | 6198.91 | 85.20 |
Portugal | 1260.12 | 66.05 |
Venezuela | 890.56 | 47.07 |
Pakistan | 873.71 | 46.17 |
Ukraine | 848.45 | 44.62 |
Ireland | 657.35 | 43.14 |
Argentina | 772.42 | 42.60 |
Hungary | 610.17 | 34.67 |
Egypt | 575.00 | 33.17 |
Italy | 444.17 | 32.07 |
Tipos de interés oficiales en el mundo y sus movimientos en 2012
| Country | Bank Name | Current level | YTD Change |
| Albania | Bank of Albania | 5.00% | - |
| Angola | Banco Nacional de Angola | 10.50% | - |
| Argentina | Central Bank of Argentina | 9.00% | - |
| Armenia | Central Bank of Armenia | 8.00% | - |
| Australia | Reserve Bank of Australia | 4.25% | - |
| Azerbaijan | Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan | 5.25% | - |
| Bahamas | Central Bank of The Bahamas | 4.50% | - |
| Bahrain | Central Bank of Bahrain | 0.50% | - |
| Bangladesh | Central Bank of Bangladesh | 7.75% | 50 bps |
| Barbados | Central Bank of Barbados | 3.00% | - |
| Belarus | National Bank of the Republic of Belarus | 45.00% | - |
| Botswana | Bank of Botswana | 9.50% | - |
| Brazil | Banco Central do Brasil | 10.50% | -50 bps |
| Canada | Bank of Canada | 1.00% | - |
| Cape Verde | Bank of Cape Verde | 5.75% | 150 bps |
| Chile | Central Bank of Chile | 5.00% | -25 bps |
| China | People's Bank of China | 6.56% | - |
| Colombia | Banco de la Republica de Colombia | 4.75% | - |
| Congo Dem. Rep | Bank of Central African States | 22.00% | - |
| Croatia | Croatian National Bank | 6.00% | - |
| Czech Republic | Czech National Bank | 0.75% | - |
| Denmark | National Bank of Denmark | 0.70% | - |
| Dominican Republic | Central Bank of the Dominican Republic | 6.00% | - |
| Egypt | Central Bank of Egypt | 9.25% | - |
| EU | European Central Bank | 1.00% | - |
| Fiji | Reserve Bank of Fiji | 0.50% | - |
| Gambia | Central Bank of The Gambia | 14.00% | - |
| Georgia | National Bank of Georgia | 6.50% | -25 bps |
| Ghana | Bank of Ghana | 12.50% | - |
| Hong Kong | Hong Kong Monetary Authority | 0.50% | - |
| Hungary | Magyar Nemzeti Bank | 7.00% | - |
| Iceland | Central Bank of Iceland | 4.75% | - |
| India | Reserve Bank of India | 8.50% | - |
| Indonesia | Bank Indonesia | 6.00% | - |
| Israel | Bank of Israel | 2.75% | - |
| Jamaica | Bank of Jamaica | 6.25% | - |
| Japan | Bank of Japan | 0.10% | - |
| Jordan | Central Bank of Jordan | 4.50% | - |
| Kazakhstan | National Bank of Kazakhstan | 7.50% | - |
| Kenya | Central Bank of Kenya | 18.00% | - |
| Kuwait | Central Bank of Kuwait | 2.50% | - |
| Latvia | Latvijas Banka | 3.50% | - |
| Macedonia | National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia | 4.00% | - |
| Malawi | Reserve Bank of Malawi | 13.00% | - |
| Malaysia | Bank Negara Malaysia | 3.00% | - |
| Mauritius | Central Bank of Mauritius | 5.40% | - |
| Mexico | Banco de Mexico | 4.50% | - |
| Moldova | National Bank of Moldova | 8.00% | - |
| Mongolia | Bank of Mongolia | 12.25% | - |
| Morocco | Bank of Morocco | 3.25% | - |
| Mozambique | Bank of Mozambique | 15.00% | - |
| Namibia | Bank of Namibia | 6.00% | - |
| New Zealand | Reserve Bank of New Zealand | 2.50% | - |
| Nigeria | Central Bank of Nigeria | 12.00% | - |
| Norway | Norges Bank | 1.75% | - |
| Pakistan | State Bank of Pakistan | 12.00% | - |
| Peru | Banco Central de Reserva del Peru | 4.25% | - |
| Philippines | Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas | 4.25% | -25 bps |
| Poland | National Bank of Poland | 4.50% | - |
| Qatar | Qatar Central Bank | 4.50% | - |
| Romania | National Bank of Romania | 5.75% | -25 bps |
| Russia | Bank Rossii | 8.00% | - |
| Rwanda | National Bank of Rwanda | 7.00% | - |
| Samoa | Central Bank of Samoa | 5.00% | - |
| Saudi Arabia | Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency | 2.00% | - |
| Serbia | National Bank of Serbia | 9.50% | -25 bps |
| Sierra Leone | Bank of Sierra Leone | 20.00% | - |
| South Africa | South African Reserve Bank | 5.50% | - |
| South Korea | Bank of Korea | 3.25% | - |
| Sri Lanka | Central Bank of Sri Lanka | 7.00% | - |
| Sweden | Riksbank | 1.75% | - |
| Switzerland | Swiss National Bank | 0.25% | - |
| Taiwan | Central Bank of the Republic of China | 1.88% | - |
| Tajikistan | National Bank of Tajikistan | 9.00% | - |
| Thailand | Bank of Thailand | 3.25% | - |
| Trinidad & Tobago | Central Bank of Trinidad & Tobago | 3.00% | - |
| Tunisia | Central Bank of Tunisia | 3.50% | - |
| Turkey | Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey | 5.75% | - |
| UAE | Central Bank of United Arab Emirates | 1.00% | - |
| Uganda | Bank of Uganda | 23.00% | - |
| Ukraine | National Bank of Ukraine | 7.75% | - |
| United Kingdom | Bank of England | 0.50% | - |
| Uruguay | Banco Cental Del Uruguay | 8.75% | - |
| USA | Federal Reserve | 0.25% | - |
| Uzbekistan | Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan | 12.00% | - |
| Vietnam | State Bank of Vietnam | 15.00% | - |
| West African States | Central Bank of West African States | 4.25% | - |
Fuente: CentralBankNews.info
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