miércoles, 19 de junio de 2013
Ante de la reunión del FOMC, repasemos las previsiones de la FED
The central range for 2012 GDP will probably be closer to the lower end of the March projections.
1 Projections of change in real GDP and in inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
The unemployment rate was at 7.6% in May and the June projections will probably be unchanged.
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
Projections for inflation will probably be reduced. Goldman Sachs believes the FOMC will lower the central projection for PCE inflation to 1.25% in 2013, and core PCE to 1.3%. The current concern is that inflation is below the Fed's target.
| GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Change in Real GDP1 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| June 2013 Meeting Projections | ¿? | ¿? | ¿? |
| Mar 2013 Meeting Projections | 2.3 to 2.8 | 2.9 to 3.4 | 2.9 to 3.7 |
| Dec 2012 Meeting Projections | 2.3 to 3.0 | 3.0 to 3.5 | 3.0 to 3.7 |
The unemployment rate was at 7.6% in May and the June projections will probably be unchanged.
| Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate2 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| June 2013 Meeting Projections | ¿? | ¿? | ¿? |
| Mar 2013 Meeting Projections | 7.3 to 7.5 | 6.7 to 7.0 | 6.0 to 6.5 |
| Dec 2012 Meeting Projections | 7.4 to 7.7 | 6.8 to 7.3 | 6.0 to 6.6 |
Projections for inflation will probably be reduced. Goldman Sachs believes the FOMC will lower the central projection for PCE inflation to 1.25% in 2013, and core PCE to 1.3%. The current concern is that inflation is below the Fed's target.
| Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| PCE Inflation1 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| June 2013 Meeting Projections | ¿? | ¿? | ¿? |
| Mar 2013 Meeting Projections | 1.3 to 1.7 | 1.5 to 2.0 | 1.7 to 2.0 |
| Dec 2012 Meeting Projections | 1.3 to 2.0 | 1.5 to 2.0 | 1.7 to 2.0 |
martes, 18 de junio de 2013
lunes, 17 de junio de 2013
viernes, 14 de junio de 2013
De nuevo el S&P500 rebotó donde debía
Justo en la media de 50 sesiones
jueves, 13 de junio de 2013
Los futuros del S&P están cotizando por debajo de la media de 50 sesiones
El cierre del contado ayer se paró justo ahí
miércoles, 12 de junio de 2013
Los tipos de la deuda USA los dos últimos años
donde se ve gráficamente el repunte de rentabilidades de las últimas semanas ¿por miedo a un fin de la QE ilimitada?
martes, 11 de junio de 2013
Situación gráfica del S$P500
Clara tendencia alcista
Hacemos zoom y de momento el rebote tras la corrección parece frenarse
Pero la situación no ha cambiado nada y si rompiera 1646 sería lógico ver nuevos máximos
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